I have warned friends to be careful as the results season come to an end in Singapore. Based on what i have witnessed in the last quarter, the technical rebound came before the season starts and ENDED as the results season come to an advance stage. This time round there is no difference based on what we have seen so far.

Now that results season is over for singapore listed companies, what should we expect next for the singapore stock market?

STI - if u look at the Medium term trend, it’s is still obviously down!

exponential moving averages (EMA) - 50days EMA is well below 100 days EMA and 200EMA, so any upward rebound will continue to face selling pressure

parabolic SAR - sti is trading way below the parabolic SAR indicator, meaning that the negative sentiment is still very strong, any near term rebound is not likely to be strong enough to push this indicator into positive zone. at the current moment, sti needs to hit 2900 in order to turn parabolic SAR into positive……..which is extremely unlikely.

based on my estimates that sti needs to rise about 5.45% or 150 points in order to push parabolic SAR into positive zone, it means that it will take at least 5 or 10 more days before we may expect to see a stronger rebound.

when i pull out the charts for MANY individual stocks, i can also see that most of their parabolic SAR indicators are deep in negative zone……this give me the same impression that they will need a very strong rebound to push their respective SAR indicators into positive zone……and again, it means that their stock price expects to see a lot of selling pressure when it rebounds and it will take another 5 to 10 days at least before we can expect to see a stronger rebound.

trade with care

rooney

Singapore share market investor conference :

CIMB Ride The Dragon Conference 26 july 08 for singapore listed companies

presenting companies
1. China sunshine chemical
2. China zaino
3. China sports
4. Yongmao holdings
5. China taisan

4july2008

Hong Kong dry-bulk shipping line company Maritime Capital Shipping has
decided not to proceed with an initial public offering (IPO) in the Singapore Stock Exchange due to weak sentiment for the Singapore stock market in recent weeks.

A report quoted the CEO of Maritime Capital Mr. Mark Harris saying “The performance of the global equity markets has deteriorated sharply in the last few days and equity markets have closed for IPOs, regardless of the underlying fundamentals of the company.” Mr. Harris did not say when or whether the company might reconsider listing plans.

After witnessing the “failure” of some of the recent IPOs in Singapore share market, most investors would find it hard to jump into another IPO. Most recent Singapore IPOs have tanked on day one of listing and are still trading below their respective IPO prices. The last count is that 15 of the 18 new companies whose shares are listed in the Singapore stock exchange this year are now trading below their offer prices.

After the recent sell off in the broad market, some recent IPOs are trading at 3-4 times FY08 earnings…….it’s no wonder new IPOs are finding hard convincing investors to subscribe to them at 4-5 times FY07 earnings.

If you are value investors, do some homework yourself on some of the recent IPOs where stock prices have fallen to 3-4times FY08 earnings. Monitor their 2Q08 results and track if these companies are on track to meet consensus estimates or the forecast FY08 earnings given during IPO. If they are on track, then the next question is WHEN is the right time to accumulate …….this is when Mr. Chart’s technical indicators and analysis come into play

Happy Hunting!